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Italy vs Armenia — Euro Championship 2024

Italy
Italy
FT
9 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Armenia
Armenia
F. Chiesa 81'
R. Orsolini 77'
Jorginho 75' (pen)
A. Romagnoli 72'
N. Zaniolo 64', 9'
C. Immobile 33', 8'
N. Barella 29'
E. Babayan 79'
11/18/2019Euro ChampionshipEuro Championship · Qualifying Round - 10Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Italy85%
×Draw9%
Armenia6%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy
3.85
Armenia
1.02

Italy creates 277% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Italy
3.38
Armenia
1.67

allows per match

Italy
0.38
Armenia
4.33

finishing

Italy+0.00on par
Armenia+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy ↓

Armenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 72% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Italy or draw
94%
Italy or Armenia
91%
Draw or Armenia
15%

Winning margin

Italy wins by 2+
69%
Armenia wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Italy 1+ goals
98%
Italy 2+ goals
89%
Italy 3+ goals
71%
Armenia 1+ goals
64%
Armenia 2+ goals
27%
Armenia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Italy (draw refunded)
93%
Armenia (draw refunded)
7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy at home — creates 3.38, concedes 0.38 · 8 matches

Armenia away — creates 1.67, concedes 4.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy attack 3.38 + Armenia defence 4.33 → ÷2 → 3.85

Armenia attack 1.67 + Italy defence 0.38 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Italy scores more
85%
level
9%
Armenia scores more
6%

Italy at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Italy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
N. ZanioloItalyItaly · F
9.7

Match Events

8'
C. Immobile↳ F. Chiesa
9'
N. Zaniolo↳ C. Immobile
29'
N. Barella↳ L. Bonucci
33'
C. Immobile↳ N. Zaniolo
34'
Varazdat Haroyan
46'
R. Orsolini← N. Barella
60'
A. Simonyan← A. Grigoryan
64'
N. Zaniolo↳ Jorginho
69'
A. Izzo← L. Bonucci
69'
A. Sarkisov← H. Ishkhanyan
72'
A. Romagnoli
75'
JorginhoPenalty
77'
A. Meret← S. Sirigu
77'
R. Orsolini↳ F. Chiesa
79'
E. Babayan
81'
F. Chiesa↳ R. Orsolini
82'
P. Avetisyan← A. Yedigaryan

Possession

71%Italy

Shots

24Italy

Pass accuracy

55%Italy

Statistics

ItalyArmenia
Overview
71%Possession29%
24Total Shots14
5Corners4
11Fouls10
Shots
24Total Shots14
12On Target5
10Off Target8
2Blocked1
18Inside Box4
6Outside Box10
Passing
71%Possession29%
605Total Passes234
546Accurate Passes170
90%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Italy vs Armenia

Italy beat Armenia 9-1 in Euro Championship on November 18, 2019.

Goals: C. Immobile (8', 33'), N. Zaniolo (9', 64'), N. Barella (29'), A. Romagnoli (72'), Jorginho (75' pen), R. Orsolini (77'), E. Babayan (79'), F. Chiesa (81').

Italy controlled possession (71%) and registered 24 shots to 14.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.