Italy U23 W 1–0 Belgium U23 W: Result & Stats

Italy U23 W

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belgium U23 W

G. Arrigoni 46'

12/1/2025

Friendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Italy U23 W43%

×Draw29%

Belgium U23 W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U23 WExpected goals in this matchBelgium U23 W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.96

Italy U23 W

1.25

Belgium U23 W

0.96

Italy U23 W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

0.50

creates per match

0.67

1.25

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Italy U23 W

0.50

Belgium U23 W

0.67

allows per match

Italy U23 W

1.25

Belgium U23 W

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U23 W+0.00on par

Belgium U23 W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U23 W ↓

Belgium U23 W →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Italy U23 W or draw

72%

Italy U23 W or Belgium U23 W

71%

Draw or Belgium U23 W

57%

Winning margin

Italy U23 W wins by 2+

19%

Belgium U23 W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Italy U23 W 1+ goals

71%

Italy U23 W 2+ goals

36%

Italy U23 W 3+ goals

13%

Belgium U23 W 1+ goals

62%

Belgium U23 W 2+ goals

25%

Belgium U23 W 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Italy U23 W (draw refunded)

60%

Belgium U23 W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Italy U23 W at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Belgium U23 W away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Italy U23 W attack 0.50 + Belgium U23 W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Belgium U23 W attack 0.67 + Italy U23 W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Italy U23 W scores more

43%

level

29%

Belgium U23 W scores more

28%

Italy U23 W at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Italy U23 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

G. Arrigoni

Italy

Belgium

⚽

Manager: J. Leandri

Friendlies Women: Italy U23 W 1–0 Belgium U23 W

Italy U23 W beat Belgium U23 W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on December 1, 2025.

Goals: G. Arrigoni (46').

Italy U23 W vs Belgium U23 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Women: Italy U23 W 1–0 Belgium U23 W