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Italy U21 vs Japan U19 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022

Italy U21
Italy U21
FT
4 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Japan U19
Japan U19
6/4/2024Tournoi Maurice RevelloTournoi Maurice Revello · Group Stage - 1Stade Jules-Ladoumègue

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Italy U2152%
×Draw20%
Japan U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy U21
2.25
Japan U19
1.63

Italy U21 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Italy U21
2.00
Japan U19
2.25

allows per match

Italy U21
1.00
Japan U19
2.50

finishing

Italy U21+0.00on par
Japan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U21 ↓

Japan U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Italy U21 or draw
72%
Italy U21 or Japan U19
80%
Draw or Japan U19
48%

Winning margin

Italy U21 wins by 2+
31%
Japan U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Italy U21 1+ goals
89%
Italy U21 2+ goals
65%
Italy U21 3+ goals
39%
Japan U19 1+ goals
80%
Japan U19 2+ goals
48%
Japan U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Italy U21 (draw refunded)
65%
Japan U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U21 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Japan U19 away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U21 attack 2.00 + Japan U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Japan U19 attack 2.25 + Italy U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Italy U21 scores more
52%
level
20%
Japan U19 scores more
28%

Italy U21 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Italy U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tournoi Maurice Revello: Italy U21 4–3 Japan U19

Italy U21 beat Japan U19 4-3 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Jules-Ladoumègue in Vitrolles.