Italy U21 vs Indonesia U20 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Italy U2168%
Indonesia U2013%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Italy U21 creates 161% more chances
Season form · 3 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Italy U21 ↓
Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Italy U21 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches
Indonesia U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Italy U21 attack 2.00 + Indonesia U20 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17
Indonesia U20 attack 0.67 + Italy U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Italy U21 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Italy U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Italy U21 host Indonesia U20 on Wednesday, 12 June 2024 at 16:15. The match is part of the Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Italy U21 vs Indonesia U20
Italy U21 beat Indonesia U20 1-0 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 12, 2024.
Goals: A. Raimondo (38').
The match was played at Stade Marcel Roustan in Salon-de-Provence.