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Italy U19 W vs Denmark U19 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Italy U19 W
Italy U19 W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Denmark U19 W
Denmark U19 W
R. Ventriglia 73'
10/23/2025Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Italy U19 W24%
×Draw25%
Denmark U19 W51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy U19 W
0.98
Denmark U19 W
1.57

Denmark U19 W creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Italy U19 W
0.67
Denmark U19 W
2.14

allows per match

Italy U19 W
1.00
Denmark U19 W
1.29

finishing

Italy U19 W+0.00on par
Denmark U19 W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 W ↓

Denmark U19 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Italy U19 W or draw
49%
Italy U19 W or Denmark U19 W
75%
Draw or Denmark U19 W
76%

Winning margin

Italy U19 W wins by 2+
8%
Denmark U19 W wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Italy U19 W 1+ goals
62%
Italy U19 W 2+ goals
26%
Italy U19 W 3+ goals
8%
Denmark U19 W 1+ goals
79%
Denmark U19 W 2+ goals
46%
Denmark U19 W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 W (draw refunded)
32%
Denmark U19 W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Denmark U19 W away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 W attack 0.67 + Denmark U19 W defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.98

Denmark U19 W attack 2.14 + Italy U19 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Italy U19 W scores more
24%
level
25%
Denmark U19 W scores more
51%

Denmark U19 W at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Denmark U19 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

73'
R. Ventriglia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Italy U19 W 1–0 Denmark U19 W

Italy U19 W beat Denmark U19 W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on October 23, 2025.

Goals: R. Ventriglia (73').