Italy U19 3–1 Ukraine U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ukraine U19

3/23/2019

UEFA U19 Championship · Elite Round - 3Stadio delle Terme

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Italy U1939%

×Draw25%

Ukraine U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchUkraine U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.44

Italy U19

1.50

Ukraine U19

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

2.10

0.77

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Italy U19

2.00

Ukraine U19

2.10

allows per match

Italy U19

0.77

Ukraine U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Ukraine U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Ukraine U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

64%

Italy U19 or Ukraine U19

75%

Draw or Ukraine U19

61%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

19%

Ukraine U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

78%

Italy U19 2+ goals

44%

Italy U19 3+ goals

19%

Ukraine U19 1+ goals

76%

Ukraine U19 2+ goals

42%

Ukraine U19 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Ukraine U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Ukraine U19 away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.00 + Ukraine U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ukraine U19 attack 2.10 + Italy U19 defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Italy U19 scores more

39%

level

25%

Ukraine U19 scores more

36%

Italy U19 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff