Italy U19 0–1 Switzerland U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Switzerland U19

11/18/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 6Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Italy U1952%

×Draw22%

Switzerland U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchSwitzerland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.28

Italy U19

1.92

Switzerland U19

1.28

Italy U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

2.75

creates per match

1.92

0.65

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Switzerland U19

1.92

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Switzerland U19

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Switzerland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Switzerland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

75%

Italy U19 or Switzerland U19

78%

Draw or Switzerland U19

48%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

30%

Switzerland U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

85%

Italy U19 2+ goals

57%

Italy U19 3+ goals

30%

Switzerland U19 1+ goals

72%

Switzerland U19 2+ goals

37%

Switzerland U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Switzerland U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Switzerland U19 away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Switzerland U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.92

Switzerland U19 attack 1.92 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Italy U19 scores more

52%

level

22%

Switzerland U19 scores more

25%

Italy U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff