Italy U19 3–0 Slovakia U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Slovakia U19

F. Coletta 72'

M. Liberali 45'

M. Mosconi 37'

3/28/2026

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 1Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Italy U1968%

×Draw19%

Slovakia U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchSlovakia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.88

Italy U19

2.23

Slovakia U19

0.88

Italy U19 creates 153% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

2.75

creates per match

1.10

0.65

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Slovakia U19

1.10

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Slovakia U19

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Slovakia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Slovakia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

86%

Italy U19 or Slovakia U19

81%

Draw or Slovakia U19

32%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

44%

Slovakia U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

89%

Italy U19 2+ goals

65%

Italy U19 3+ goals

38%

Slovakia U19 1+ goals

59%

Slovakia U19 2+ goals

22%

Slovakia U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Slovakia U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Slovakia U19 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Slovakia U19 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.23

Slovakia U19 attack 1.10 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Italy U19 scores more

68%

level

19%

Slovakia U19 scores more

14%

Italy U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

S. Vlna

35'

E. Sala

37'

M. Mosconi↳ J. Iddrissou

40'

40'

41'

41'

42'

J. Ancic

45'

M. Liberali↳ M. Cocchi

46'

D. Balog← N. Udvaros

51'

F. Coletta← M. Liberali

57'

E. Sala

57'

E. Sala

64'

F. Galvagno← J. Iddrissou

70'

M. Bacik← F. Trello

72'

F. Coletta↳ M. Mosconi

75'

F. Slovak← D. Ziska

76'

F. Steffanoni← J. Idele

76'

M. Marello← M. Mosconi

82'

M. Bacik

84'

J. Majer← L. Pristach

84'

M. Konopka← P. Baleja

90+1'

C. Comotto

Italy

Slovakia

1

Zajac

8

Bortoli

19

▼

Pristach

2

Lajciak

3

▼

Ziska

18

▼

Udvaros

10

Vlna

15

Blasko

17

▼

Baleja

20

Zulevic

7

▼

22

4

23

5

3

A

Cocchi

10

⚽

▼

Liberali

8

Sala

14

Comotto

2

▼

Idele

9

A

▼

Iddrissou

11

⚽A

▼

Mosconi

Manager: A. Bollini

51'▲F. Coletta←▼M. Liberali

64'▲F. Galvagno←▼J. Iddrissou

76'▲F. Steffanoni←▼J. Idele

76'▲M. Marello←▼M. Mosconi

Italy U19 substitutes

1Vannucchi6Reggiani7Coletta13Leandri16Mantini18Steffanoni19Marello20Galvagno

Manager: M. Fabuš

46'▲D. Balog←▼N. Udvaros

70'▲M. Bacik←▼F. Trello

75'▲F. Slovak←▼D. Ziska

84'▲J. Majer←▼L. Pristach

84'▲M. Konopka←▼P. Baleja

Slovakia U19 substitutes

12Kalanin4Majer5Konopka13Bacik14Slovak16Balog

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Italy U19 3–0 Slovakia U19

Italy U19 beat Slovakia U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on March 28, 2026.

Goals: M. Mosconi (37'), M. Liberali (45'), F. Coletta (72').

The match was played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla in Cosenza.

Italy U19 vs Slovakia U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Italy U19 3–0 Slovakia U19