Italy U19 1–1 Poland U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Poland U19

L. Hasa 34'

I. Strzałek 8'

7/9/2023

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2Ta'Qali National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Italy U1957%

×Draw24%

Poland U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchPoland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.87

Italy U19

1.71

Poland U19

0.87

Italy U19 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

2.13

creates per match

0.86

0.88

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Italy U19

2.13

Poland U19

0.86

allows per match

Italy U19

0.88

Poland U19

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Poland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Poland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

81%

Italy U19 or Poland U19

76%

Draw or Poland U19

43%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

32%

Poland U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

82%

Italy U19 2+ goals

51%

Italy U19 3+ goals

24%

Poland U19 1+ goals

58%

Poland U19 2+ goals

22%

Poland U19 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Poland U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Poland U19 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.13 + Poland U19 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Poland U19 attack 0.86 + Italy U19 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Italy U19 scores more

57%

level

24%

Poland U19 scores more

19%

Italy U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

L. Hasa

Italy U19 · F

7.9

Match Events

8'

I. Strzałek↳ D. Bugaj

20'

23'

30'

34'

46'

K. Urbański← M. Kowalczyk

46'

T. Pieńko← J. Nsangou

52'

Jakub Lewicki

55'

M. Brzozowski← J. Lewicki

70'

M. Kowalski← I. Strzałek

77'

L. Amatucci← G. Faticanti

77'

L. Koleosho← S. Vignato

82'

I. Kaczmarski← D. Bugaj

83'

N. Turco← F. Esposito

85'

Cher Ndour

86'

Nicolò Turco

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItalyPoland

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots13

8Corners1

17Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots13

5On Target5

4Off Target6

5Blocked2

8Inside Box4

6Outside Box9

Passing

48%Possession52%

334Total Passes380

254Accurate Passes298

76%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls18

4Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0