Italy U19 2–1 Norway U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Norway U19

K. Zeroli 51'

L. Di Maggio 44'

D. Braut 35'

7/15/2024

UEFA U19 Championship · Group Stage - 1Seaview

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Italy U1947%

×Draw24%

Norway U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchNorway U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.27

Italy U19

1.70

Norway U19

1.27

Italy U19 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 15 away

2.13

creates per match

1.67

0.88

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Italy U19

2.13

Norway U19

1.67

allows per match

Italy U19

0.88

Norway U19

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Norway U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Norway U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

71%

Italy U19 or Norway U19

76%

Draw or Norway U19

53%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

25%

Norway U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

82%

Italy U19 2+ goals

51%

Italy U19 3+ goals

24%

Norway U19 1+ goals

72%

Norway U19 2+ goals

36%

Norway U19 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Norway U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

Norway U19 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.13 + Norway U19 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.70

Norway U19 attack 1.67 + Italy U19 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Italy U19 scores more

47%

level

24%

Norway U19 scores more

29%

Italy U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Pafundi

Italy U19 · F

8.3

Match Events

35'

D. Braut↳ M. Pedersen

40'

D. Braut

44'

L. Di Maggio↳ S. Pafundi

51'

K. Zeroli↳ S. Pafundi

57'

E. Austbø← B. Bang-Kittelsen

57'

B. Faraas← M. Pedersen

64'

L. Anghelè← T. Ebone

73'

M. Mannini← L. Di Maggio

73'

J. Harder← L. Lipani

80'

L. Anghele

80'

F. Loftesnes-Bjune← T. Hernes

85'

F. Camarda← A. Ciammaglichella

85'

D. Sia← S. Pafundi

85'

A. Hammer Kjelsen← H. Røsten

87'

F. Camarda

89'

J. Harder

90'

R. Marin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ItalyNorway

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots11

8Corners4

14Fouls14

Shots

17Total Shots11

7On Target1

4Off Target5

6Blocked5

7Inside Box7

10Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

443Total Passes356

356Accurate Passes264

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls14

4Yellow Cards1

5Offsides1