Italy U19 3–0 Montenegro U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Montenegro U19

L. Riccio 61'

J. Ekhator 45'

M. Mannini 23'

11/13/2024

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Gipedo Archanes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Italy U1967%

×Draw20%

Montenegro U1914%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchMontenegro U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.82

Italy U19

2.11

Montenegro U19

0.82

Italy U19 creates 157% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 15 away

2.75

creates per match

1.00

0.65

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Montenegro U19

1.00

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Montenegro U19

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Montenegro U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Montenegro U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

86%

Italy U19 or Montenegro U19

80%

Draw or Montenegro U19

33%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

43%

Montenegro U19 wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

88%

Italy U19 2+ goals

62%

Italy U19 3+ goals

35%

Montenegro U19 1+ goals

56%

Montenegro U19 2+ goals

20%

Montenegro U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

83%

Montenegro U19 (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Montenegro U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Montenegro U19 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 2.11

Montenegro U19 attack 1.00 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Italy U19 scores more

67%

level

20%

Montenegro U19 scores more

14%

Italy U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

16'

23'

45'

46'

57'

A. Zekovic

57'

N. Fortini

61'

L. Riccio

62'

D. Ćetković← A. Kostić

67'

M. Romano← E. Sala

71'

F. Perović← M. Tadić

76'

L. Mendicino← J. Ekhator

76'

S. Fini← V. Magni

77'

L. Zlatičanin← A. Bulatović

78'

L. Šekularac← A. Camaj

83'

L. Mendicino

90+3'

D. Sia← M. Mannini

90+2'

M. Cocchi← F. Pagnucco

Italy

Montenegro

1

2

5

4

6

17

11

▼

Camaj

10

▼

Bulatović

8

Zeković

9

▼

Tadić

7

▼

Kostić

1

Martinell

16

▼

Pagnucco

4

Leoni

19

▼

Magni

13

Natali

2

Fortini

8

⚽

▼

Mannini

6

⚽

Riccio

15

▼

Sala

9

Camarda

18

⚽

▼

Ekhator

Manager: A. Bollini

67'▲M. Romano←▼E. Sala

76'▲L. Mendicino←▼J. Ekhator

76'▲S. Fini←▼V. Magni

90+3'▲D. Sia←▼M. Mannini

90+2'▲M. Cocchi←▼F. Pagnucco

Italy U19 substitutes

10Romano20Mendicino7Fini11Sia3Cocchi17Liberali5Plaia12Bellucci

Manager: G. Perišić

62'▲D. Ćetković←▼A. Kostić

71'▲F. Perović←▼M. Tadić

77'▲L. Zlatičanin←▼A. Bulatović

78'▲L. Šekularac←▼A. Camaj

Montenegro U19 substitutes

16Ćetković19Perović21Zlatičanin22Šekularac12Božinović3Maraš14Martinović20Mijović18Vlahović

Match Recap: Italy U19 vs Montenegro U19

Italy U19 beat Montenegro U19 3-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 13, 2024.

Goals: M. Mannini (23'), J. Ekhator (45'), L. Riccio (61').

The match was played at Gipedo Archanes in Archanes.

Italy U19 vs Montenegro U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Italy U19 vs Montenegro U19