Italy U19 8–0 Moldova U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

8 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Moldova U19

F. Cerpelletti 83'

A. Cacciamani 72'

M. Cocchi 69'

A. Ciardi 58', 5'

E. Sala 20'

F. Coletta 16'

M. Mosconi 13'

11/12/2025

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Italy U1985%

×Draw11%

Moldova U194%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchMoldova U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.83

0.49

Italy U19

2.83

Moldova U19

0.49

Italy U19 creates 478% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 12 away

2.75

creates per match

0.33

0.65

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Moldova U19

0.33

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Moldova U19

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Moldova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Moldova U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

96%

Italy U19 or Moldova U19

89%

Draw or Moldova U19

15%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

65%

Moldova U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

94%

Italy U19 2+ goals

77%

Italy U19 3+ goals

53%

Moldova U19 1+ goals

39%

Moldova U19 2+ goals

9%

Moldova U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

95%

Moldova U19 (draw refunded)

5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Moldova U19 away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Moldova U19 defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.83

Moldova U19 attack 0.33 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Italy U19 scores more

85%

level

11%

Moldova U19 scores more

4%

Italy U19 at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

13'

16'

20'

43'

46'

46'

M. Gumenco← M. Marandici

46'

I. Graminschii← A. Betivu

46'

V. Burca← M. Sava

58'

A. Ciardi

60'

F. Cerpelletti← A. Ciardi

60'

M. Liberali← M. Mosconi

63'

A. Muntean← G. Mosneagu

69'

M. Cocchi

72'

A. Cacciamani↳ A. Natali

73'

M. Leandri← M. Cocchi

73'

A. Castiello← J. Iddrissou

76'

D. Dimitrisin

78'

P. Sula← L. Bulmaga

83'

F. Cerpelletti

Italy

Moldova

12

▼

2

5

4

3

7

20

▼

Bulmaga

18

▼

Mosneagu

19

▼

Betivu

9

▼

Sava

11

Caragheor

1

Nunziante

4

▼

Nardin

14

A

Natali

15

Maffessol

3

⚽

▼

Cocchi

7

⚽

Coletta

8

⚽

Sala

10

⚽2

▼

Ciardi

9

⚽

▼

Mosconi

19

▼

Iddrissou

11

⚽

Cacciaman

Manager: A. Bollini

46'▲J. Idele←▼F. Nardin

60'▲F. Cerpelletti←▼A. Ciardi

60'▲M. Liberali←▼M. Mosconi

73'▲M. Leandri←▼M. Cocchi

73'▲A. Castiello←▼J. Iddrissou

Italy U19 substitutes

12Vannucchi2Idele5Verde6Cerpelletti13Leandri16Mantini17Nunzio18Castiello20Liberali

46'▲M. Gumenco←▼M. Marandici

46'▲I. Graminschii←▼A. Betivu

46'▲V. Burca←▼M. Sava

63'▲A. Muntean←▼G. Mosneagu

78'▲P. Sula←▼L. Bulmaga

Moldova U19 substitutes

1Gumenco6Graminschii8Muntean10Musteata13Egupov14Burca15Negru16Sula17Cornescu

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Italy U19 8–0 Moldova U19

Italy U19 beat Moldova U19 8-0 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on November 12, 2025.

Goals: A. Ciardi (5', 58'), M. Mosconi (13'), F. Coletta (16'), E. Sala (20'), M. Cocchi (69'), A. Cacciamani (72'), F. Cerpelletti (83').

Italy U19 vs Moldova U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Italy U19 8–0 Moldova U19