Italy U19 2–0 Lithuania U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lithuania U19

H. N'Gbesso 90+2'

F. Miretti 45'

10/6/2021

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1ŠRC Bakovci

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Italy U1973%

×Draw17%

Lithuania U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchLithuania U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.71

Italy U19

2.30

Lithuania U19

0.71

Italy U19 creates 224% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 13 away

2.75

creates per match

0.77

0.65

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Lithuania U19

0.77

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Lithuania U19

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Lithuania U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Lithuania U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

90%

Italy U19 or Lithuania U19

83%

Draw or Lithuania U19

27%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

49%

Lithuania U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

90%

Italy U19 2+ goals

67%

Italy U19 3+ goals

40%

Lithuania U19 1+ goals

51%

Lithuania U19 2+ goals

16%

Lithuania U19 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Lithuania U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Lithuania U19 away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Lithuania U19 defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.30

Lithuania U19 attack 0.77 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Italy U19 scores more

73%

level

17%

Lithuania U19 scores more

10%

Italy U19 at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

F. Miretti

46'

H. N'Gbesso← D. Egharevba

61'

D. Dovydaitis← T. Buzas

61'

G. Gineitis← M. Burba

64'

G. Faticanti← W. Gnonto

64'

T. Baldanzi← F. Zuccon

77'

F. Steponavičius← K. Keršys

79'

A. Fontanarosa← T. Sandon

90+3'

J. Fazzini← G. Fabbian

90+2'

H. N'Gbesso

Italy

Lithuania

12

4

2

16

3

9

6

20

▼

Buzas

10

▼

Keršys

8

▼

23

1

2

6

13

▼

Sandon

15

Coppola

10

⚽

Miretti

4

▼

Zuccon

7

Casadei

14

▼

Fabbian

9

▼

Gnonto

19

▼

Egharevba

Manager: C. Nunziata

46'▲H. N'Gbesso←▼D. Egharevba

64'▲G. Faticanti←▼W. Gnonto

64'▲T. Baldanzi←▼F. Zuccon

79'▲A. Fontanarosa←▼T. Sandon

90+3'▲J. Fazzini←▼G. Fabbian

Italy U19 substitutes

8N'Gbesso16Faticanti11Baldanzi3Fontanarosa21Fazzini5Degl'Innocenti17Ghilardi12Zacchi18Mancini

Manager: T. Ražanauskas

61'▲D. Dovydaitis←▼T. Buzas

61'▲G. Gineitis←▼M. Burba

77'▲F. Steponavičius←▼K. Keršys

Lithuania U19 substitutes

11Dovydaitis21Gineitis19Steponavičius1Kublickas15Jurjonas13Vilkaitis7Žederštreimas5Slivka17Skibiniauskas