Italy U19 7–0 Liechtenstein U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

7 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Liechtenstein U19

11/15/2023

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 4Borås Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Italy U1996%

×Draw3%

Liechtenstein U191%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchLiechtenstein U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

4.50

0.39

Italy U19

4.50

Liechtenstein U19

0.39

Italy U19 creates 1054% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

2.75

creates per match

0.13

0.65

allows per match

6.25

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Liechtenstein U19

0.13

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Liechtenstein U19

6.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Liechtenstein U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Liechtenstein U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–12%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–14%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–014%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–015%

4–16%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (15%) · grid covers 64% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

66%34%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

99%

Italy U19 or Liechtenstein U19

97%

Draw or Liechtenstein U19

4%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

87%

Liechtenstein U19 wins by 2+

0%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

99%

Italy U19 2+ goals

93%

Italy U19 3+ goals

79%

Liechtenstein U19 1+ goals

32%

Liechtenstein U19 2+ goals

6%

Liechtenstein U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

99%

Liechtenstein U19 (draw refunded)

1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Liechtenstein U19 away — creates 0.13, concedes 6.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Liechtenstein U19 defence 6.25 → ÷2 → 4.50

Liechtenstein U19 attack 0.13 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 96%?"

Italy U19 scores more

96%

level

3%

Liechtenstein U19 scores more

1%

Italy U19 at 96% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 96% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff