Italy U19 4–0 Finland U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

4 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Finland U19

C. Casadei 74'

W. Gnonto 43', 42'

F. Miretti 22' (pen)

3/26/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Elite Round - 3Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Italy U1958%

×Draw22%

Finland U1920%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchFinland U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.10

Italy U19

2.00

Finland U19

1.10

Italy U19 creates 82% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

2.75

creates per match

1.56

0.65

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Finland U19

1.56

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Finland U19

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Finland U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Finland U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

80%

Italy U19 or Finland U19

78%

Draw or Finland U19

42%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

35%

Finland U19 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

86%

Italy U19 2+ goals

59%

Italy U19 3+ goals

32%

Finland U19 1+ goals

67%

Finland U19 2+ goals

30%

Finland U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

74%

Finland U19 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Finland U19 away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Finland U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Finland U19 attack 1.56 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Italy U19 scores more

58%

level

22%

Finland U19 scores more

20%

Italy U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

M. Zanotti

22'

F. MirettiPenalty

24'

42'

43'

46'

46'

R. Turicchia← G. Mulazzi

46'

M. Kivikko← O. Kemppainen

64'

S. Giovane← F. Miretti

64'

J. Nikki← M. Koskela

64'

O. Koskinen← N. Saarikivi

74'

C. Casadei

75'

T. Baldanzi← G. Ambrosino

77'

E. Patut← L. Hyryläinen

81'

F. Terracciano← G. Fabbian

87'

K. Meriluoto← M. Stjopin

90+1'

F. Terracciano

Italy

Finland

1

Riihimäki

4

▼

Koskela

17

▼

Kemppaine

5

Talo

2

Wallius

7

▼

Saarikivi

6

▼

Hyryläine

8

Walta

15

Terho

18

▼

Stjopin

10

Sadiku

1

Desplanch

17

▼

6

2

23

10

⚽

▼

Miretti

8

⚽

Casadei

14

▼

Fabbian

16

Faticanti

7

⚽2

▼

Gnonto

9

▼

Ambrosino

Manager: C. Nunziata

46'▲M. Nasti←▼W. Gnonto

46'▲R. Turicchia←▼G. Mulazzi

64'▲S. Giovane←▼F. Miretti

75'▲T. Baldanzi←▼G. Ambrosino

81'▲F. Terracciano←▼G. Fabbian

Italy U19 substitutes

20Nasti3Turicchia5Giovane11Baldanzi13Terracciano4Coppola12Zacchi21Fazzini

Manager: P. Lundberg

46'▲M. Kivikko←▼O. Kemppainen

64'▲J. Nikki←▼M. Koskela

64'▲O. Koskinen←▼N. Saarikivi

77'▲E. Patut←▼L. Hyryläinen

87'▲K. Meriluoto←▼M. Stjopin

Finland U19 substitutes

19Kivikko3Nikki13Koskinen14Patut11Meriluoto12Henriksson9Ikonen16Pettersson20Keskinen