Italy U19 0–2 Estonia U19: Result & Stats

Italy U19

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Estonia U19

E. Õunapuu 90+3'

N. Kondratski 90'

9/21/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 1Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Italy U1975%

×Draw16%

Estonia U199%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchEstonia U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.34

0.65

Italy U19

2.34

Estonia U19

0.65

Italy U19 creates 260% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.75

creates per match

0.64

0.65

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Estonia U19

0.64

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Estonia U19

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Estonia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Estonia U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

91%

Italy U19 or Estonia U19

84%

Draw or Estonia U19

25%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

52%

Estonia U19 wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

90%

Italy U19 2+ goals

67%

Italy U19 3+ goals

41%

Estonia U19 1+ goals

48%

Estonia U19 2+ goals

14%

Estonia U19 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

90%

Estonia U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Estonia U19 away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Estonia U19 defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.34

Estonia U19 attack 0.64 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Italy U19 scores more

75%

level

16%

Estonia U19 scores more

9%

Italy U19 at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

S. Merilai

46'

N. Turco← T. Mancini

63'

E. Õunapuu← K. Eerme

63'

N. Kondratski← D. Luts

67'

S. Vignato← L. Amatucci

73'

A. Vaher

79'

A. Švedovski← R. Sillamaa

79'

G. Lehtmets← M. Orlov

84'

L. D'Andrea← J. Kumi

90+2'

R. Ernits← A. Sakarias

90'

N. Kondratski

90+3'

E. Õunapuu

Italy

Estonia

12

5

14

2

8

3

13

▼

Sillamaa

19

▼

Orlov

20

▼

Sakarias

7

▼

Luts

18

▼

1

4

2

3

6

16

7

8

▼

Kumi

17

▼

Amatucci

9

▼

Mancini

18

Raimondo

Manager: A. Bollini

46'▲N. Turco←▼T. Mancini

67'▲S. Vignato←▼L. Amatucci

84'▲L. D'Andrea←▼J. Kumi

Italy U19 substitutes

19Turco10Vignato11D'Andrea14Favasuli5Dellavalle20Maggio15Lipani13Kayode12Bagnolini

Manager: A. Bärengrub

63'▲E. Õunapuu←▼K. Eerme

63'▲N. Kondratski←▼D. Luts

79'▲A. Švedovski←▼R. Sillamaa

79'▲G. Lehtmets←▼M. Orlov

90+2'▲R. Ernits←▼A. Sakarias

Estonia U19 substitutes

9Õunapuu17Kondratski11Švedovski10Lehtmets6Ernits4Bergman1Hendrikson15Otti16Tiigiste