Italy U19 3–2 Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

Italy U19

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

L. Hasa 88'

S. Vignato 63' (pen), 2' (pen)

A. Prskalo 74'

M. Šakota 38'

9/24/2022

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification · Qualifying Round - 3Stadion MOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Italy U1966%

×Draw19%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U19Expected goals in this matchBosnia-Herzegovina U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.97

Italy U19

2.23

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

0.97

Italy U19 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.75

creates per match

1.29

0.65

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Italy U19

2.75

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.29

allows per match

Italy U19

0.65

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U19+0.00on par

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U19 ↓

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Italy U19 or draw

85%

Italy U19 or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

81%

Draw or Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

34%

Winning margin

Italy U19 wins by 2+

42%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Italy U19 1+ goals

89%

Italy U19 2+ goals

65%

Italy U19 3+ goals

38%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 1+ goals

62%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 2+ goals

25%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Italy U19 (draw refunded)

81%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U19 at home — creates 2.75, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U19 attack 2.75 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.23

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 attack 1.29 + Italy U19 defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Italy U19 scores more

66%

level

19%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 scores more

15%

Italy U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Italy U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

S. VignatoPenalty

13'

G. Faticanti

20'

H. Alisah

38'

M. Šakota

54'

L. Dellavalle

62'

D. Pestic

63'

L. Prslja

63'

S. VignatoPenalty

68'

A. Prskalo← H. Ališah

69'

E. Mulalic

72'

S. Vignato

74'

A. Prskalo

75'

L. Amatucci← L. Di Maggio

75'

L. Lipani← G. Faticanti

77'

J. Kumi

83'

L. Hasa← L. DAndrea

83'

M. Kayode← I. Regonesi

88'

A. Raimondo← N. Turco

88'

L. Hasa

89'

N. Kočević← M. Šakota

89'

Z. Plavčić← A. Mešanović

90+1'

N. Kocevic

90+1'

D. Mastrantonio

90+6'

E. Mulalic

90+6'

E. Mulalic

Italy

Bosnia-Herzegovina

1

Pršlja

2

Smajić

20

Mulalić

15

▼

5

18

10

6

▼

Ališah

9

Kahvić

11

⚽

▼

7

1

5

2

3

▼

Regonesi

6

Stivanell

16

▼

Faticanti

8

Kumi

11

▼

D'Andrea

20

▼

Maggio

10

⚽2

Vignato

19

▼

Turco

Manager: A. Bollini

75'▲L. Amatucci←▼L. Di Maggio

75'▲L. Lipani←▼G. Faticanti

83'▲L. Hasa←▼L. DAndrea

83'▲M. Kayode←▼I. Regonesi

88'▲A. Raimondo←▼N. Turco

Italy U19 substitutes

17Amatucci15Lipani7Hasa13Kayode18Raimondo14Favasuli4Chiarodia12Bagnolini9Mancini

Manager: M. Ivanković

68'▲A. Prskalo←▼H. Ališah

89'▲N. Kočević←▼M. Šakota

89'▲Z. Plavčić←▼A. Mešanović

Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 substitutes

16Prskalo8Kočević17Plavčić4Prusina13Mijatović19Bogdanić14Pramenković3Šušić12Vojvodić

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Italy U19 3–2 Bosnia-Herzegovina U19

Italy U19 beat Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 3-2 in UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification on September 24, 2022.

Goals: S. Vignato (2' pen, 63' pen), M. Šakota (38'), A. Prskalo (74'), L. Hasa (88').

The match was played at Stadion MOSiR in Rumia.

Italy U19 vs Bosnia-Herzegovina U19 — UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA U19 Championship - Qualification: Italy U19 3–2 Bosnia-Herzegovina U19