Italy U18 2–2 Ukraine U18: Result & Stats

Italy U18

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Ukraine U18

2/17/2026

Friendlies · Friendly International

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Italy U1840%

×Draw29%

Ukraine U1831%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U18Expected goals in this matchUkraine U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.02

Italy U18

1.20

Ukraine U18

1.02

Italy U18 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

1.40

creates per match

1.25

0.80

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Italy U18

1.40

Ukraine U18

1.25

allows per match

Italy U18

0.80

Ukraine U18

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U18+0.00on par

Ukraine U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U18 ↓

Ukraine U18 →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Italy U18 or draw

69%

Italy U18 or Ukraine U18

71%

Draw or Ukraine U18

60%

Winning margin

Italy U18 wins by 2+

17%

Ukraine U18 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Italy U18 1+ goals

70%

Italy U18 2+ goals

34%

Italy U18 3+ goals

12%

Ukraine U18 1+ goals

64%

Ukraine U18 2+ goals

27%

Ukraine U18 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Italy U18 (draw refunded)

56%

Ukraine U18 (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Italy U18 at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Ukraine U18 away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Italy U18 attack 1.40 + Ukraine U18 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Ukraine U18 attack 1.25 + Italy U18 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Italy U18 scores more

40%

level

29%

Ukraine U18 scores more

31%

Italy U18 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Italy U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff