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Italy U17 W vs Switzerland U17 W — Friendlies Women 2026

Italy U17 W
Italy U17 W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Switzerland U17 W
Switzerland U17 W
B. Martone 45'
G. Nein 34'
2/19/2026Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendly International Women

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Italy U17 W35%
×Draw31%
Switzerland U17 W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy U17 W
1.00
Switzerland U17 W
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Italy U17 W
1.00
Switzerland U17 W
1.00

allows per match

Italy U17 W
1.00
Switzerland U17 W
1.00

finishing

Italy U17 W+0.00on par
Switzerland U17 W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U17 W ↓

Switzerland U17 W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Italy U17 W or draw
65%
Italy U17 W or Switzerland U17 W
69%
Draw or Switzerland U17 W
65%

Winning margin

Italy U17 W wins by 2+
13%
Switzerland U17 W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Italy U17 W 1+ goals
63%
Italy U17 W 2+ goals
26%
Italy U17 W 3+ goals
8%
Switzerland U17 W 1+ goals
63%
Switzerland U17 W 2+ goals
26%
Switzerland U17 W 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Italy U17 W (draw refunded)
50%
Switzerland U17 W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U17 W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Switzerland U17 W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U17 W attack 1.00 + Switzerland U17 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Switzerland U17 W attack 1.00 + Italy U17 W defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Italy U17 W scores more
35%
level
31%
Switzerland U17 W scores more
35%

Italy U17 W at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Italy U17 W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'
G. Nein
45'
B. Martone

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Women: Italy U17 W 1–1 Switzerland U17 W

Italy U17 W and Switzerland U17 W drew 1-1 in Friendlies Women on February 19, 2026.

Goals: G. Nein (34'), B. Martone (45').