Italy U17 4–0 Wales U17: Result & Stats

Italy U17

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wales U17

11/8/2024

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Round 1 - 2Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Italy U1753%

×Draw20%

Wales U1727%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Italy U17Expected goals in this matchWales U17

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.58

Italy U17

2.29

Wales U17

1.58

Italy U17 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

2.89

creates per match

2.44

0.72

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Italy U17

2.89

Wales U17

2.44

allows per match

Italy U17

0.72

Wales U17

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Italy U17+0.00on par

Wales U17+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U17 ↓

Wales U17 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Italy U17 or draw

73%

Italy U17 or Wales U17

80%

Draw or Wales U17

47%

Winning margin

Italy U17 wins by 2+

33%

Wales U17 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Italy U17 1+ goals

90%

Italy U17 2+ goals

66%

Italy U17 3+ goals

40%

Wales U17 1+ goals

79%

Wales U17 2+ goals

47%

Wales U17 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Italy U17 (draw refunded)

67%

Wales U17 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U17 at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Wales U17 away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U17 attack 2.89 + Wales U17 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.29

Wales U17 attack 2.44 + Italy U17 defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Italy U17 scores more

53%

level

20%

Wales U17 scores more

27%

Italy U17 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Italy U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff