Italy U17 vs San Marino U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 14+ matches
Italy U1790%
San Marino U173%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Italy U17 creates 576% more chances
Season form · 18 home / 14 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over74
- Under26
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Italy U17 ↓
Most likely 3–0 (14%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Italy U17 at home — creates 2.89, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches
San Marino U17 away — creates 0.29, concedes 4.00 · 14 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Italy U17 attack 2.89 + San Marino U17 defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.45
San Marino U17 attack 0.29 + Italy U17 defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.51
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 90%?"
Italy U17 at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 90% does not mean "Italy U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Italy U17 host San Marino U17 on Tuesday, 5 November 2024 at 10:00. The match is part of the UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022/2023 season.
Match Recap: Italy U17 vs San Marino U17
Italy U17 beat San Marino U17 5-0 in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification on November 5, 2024.
Goals: L. Reggiani (8'), T. Campaniello (33', 65'), O. Blini (70'), V. Damiano (74').
The match was played at Campo Sportivo di Acquaviva in Acquaviva.