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Italy U17 vs Germany U17 — UEFA U17 Championship 2022

Italy U17
Italy U17
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Germany U17
Germany U17
5/16/2022UEFA U17 ChampionshipUEFA U17 Championship · Group Stage - 1Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Italy U1731%
×Draw21%
Germany U1748%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Italy U17
1.73
Germany U17
2.17

Germany U17 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Italy U17
2.13
Germany U17
3.33

allows per match

Italy U17
1.00
Germany U17
1.33

finishing

Italy U17+0.00on par
Germany U17+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Italy U17 ↓

Germany U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Italy U17 or draw
52%
Italy U17 or Germany U17
79%
Draw or Germany U17
69%

Winning margin

Italy U17 wins by 2+
15%
Germany U17 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Italy U17 1+ goals
82%
Italy U17 2+ goals
52%
Italy U17 3+ goals
25%
Germany U17 1+ goals
89%
Germany U17 2+ goals
64%
Germany U17 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Italy U17 (draw refunded)
39%
Germany U17 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Italy U17 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

Germany U17 away — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Italy U17 attack 2.13 + Germany U17 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Germany U17 attack 3.33 + Italy U17 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Italy U17 scores more
31%
level
21%
Germany U17 scores more
48%

Germany U17 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Germany U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Italy U17 vs Germany U17

Germany U17 beat Italy U17 3-2 in UEFA U17 Championship on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.