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Itabuna vs Ypiranga BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Itabuna
Itabuna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Ypiranga BA
Ypiranga BA
Vinicius Amaral 38'
Lucas Sergio 18'
Bonete 78'
Bolt 68'
6/1/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 6Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Itabuna54%
×Draw26%
Ypiranga BA20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna
1.52
Ypiranga BA
0.82

Itabuna creates 85% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Itabuna
1.64
Ypiranga BA
1.00

allows per match

Itabuna
0.64
Ypiranga BA
1.40

finishing

Itabuna+0.00on par
Ypiranga BA+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna ↓

Ypiranga BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Itabuna or draw
80%
Itabuna or Ypiranga BA
74%
Draw or Ypiranga BA
46%

Winning margin

Itabuna wins by 2+
28%
Ypiranga BA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Itabuna 1+ goals
78%
Itabuna 2+ goals
45%
Itabuna 3+ goals
20%
Ypiranga BA 1+ goals
56%
Ypiranga BA 2+ goals
20%
Ypiranga BA 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Itabuna (draw refunded)
73%
Ypiranga BA (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Ypiranga BA away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna attack 1.64 + Ypiranga BA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Ypiranga BA attack 1.00 + Itabuna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Itabuna scores more
54%
level
26%
Ypiranga BA scores more
20%

Itabuna at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
Lucas Sergio
38'
Vinicius Amaral
68'
Bolt
78'
Bonete

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itabuna vs Ypiranga BA

Itabuna and Ypiranga BA drew 2-2 in Baiano - 2 on June 1, 2025.

Goals: Lucas Sergio (18'), Vinicius Amaral (38'), Bolt (68'), Bonete (78').

The match was played at Estádio Alberto Oliveira in Feira de Santana, Bahia.