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Itabuna vs Vitoria Da Conquista — Baiano - 2 2019

Itabuna
Itabuna
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Vitoria Da Conquista
Vitoria Da Conquista
Caique 43' (pen)
Vinicius Amaral 16'
Jussimar 5'
Luan 90+4', 59'
5/11/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Itabuna47%
×Draw27%
Vitoria Da Conquista26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna
1.40
Vitoria Da Conquista
0.96

Itabuna creates 46% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 18 away

creates per match

Itabuna
1.64
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.28

allows per match

Itabuna
0.64
Vitoria Da Conquista
1.17

finishing

Itabuna+0.00on par
Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna ↓

Vitoria Da Conquista →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Itabuna or draw
74%
Itabuna or Vitoria Da Conquista
73%
Draw or Vitoria Da Conquista
53%

Winning margin

Itabuna wins by 2+
23%
Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Itabuna 1+ goals
75%
Itabuna 2+ goals
41%
Itabuna 3+ goals
17%
Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals
62%
Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals
25%
Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Itabuna (draw refunded)
65%
Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Vitoria Da Conquista away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna attack 1.64 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.40

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.28 + Itabuna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Itabuna scores more
47%
level
27%
Vitoria Da Conquista scores more
26%

Itabuna at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
Jussimar
16'
Vinicius Amaral
43'
CaiquePenalty
59'
Luan
90+4'
Luan
90+5'
Henrique Marcos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itabuna vs Vitoria Da Conquista

Itabuna beat Vitoria Da Conquista 3-2 in Baiano - 2 on May 11, 2025.

Goals: Jussimar (5'), Vinicius Amaral (16'), Caique (43' pen), Luan (59', 90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.