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Itabuna vs Grapiuna Itabuna — Baiano - 2 2019

Itabuna
Itabuna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Grapiuna Itabuna
Grapiuna Itabuna
Aisley 52'
Guilherme Ivo 22'
5/25/2025Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Itabuna57%
×Draw26%
Grapiuna Itabuna18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna
1.55
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.74

Itabuna creates 109% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 26 away

creates per match

Itabuna
1.64
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.85

allows per match

Itabuna
0.64
Grapiuna Itabuna
1.46

finishing

Itabuna+0.00on par
Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna ↓

Grapiuna Itabuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Itabuna or draw
82%
Itabuna or Grapiuna Itabuna
74%
Draw or Grapiuna Itabuna
43%

Winning margin

Itabuna wins by 2+
30%
Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Itabuna 1+ goals
79%
Itabuna 2+ goals
46%
Itabuna 3+ goals
20%
Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals
52%
Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals
17%
Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Itabuna (draw refunded)
76%
Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Grapiuna Itabuna away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna attack 1.64 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.55

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.85 + Itabuna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Itabuna scores more
57%
level
26%
Grapiuna Itabuna scores more
18%

Itabuna at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
Guilherme Ivo
52'
Aisley

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Itabuna 2–0 Grapiuna Itabuna

Itabuna beat Grapiuna Itabuna 2-0 in Baiano - 2 on May 25, 2025.

Goals: Guilherme Ivo (22'), Aisley (52').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal José Rocha in Jacobina, Bahia.