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Itabuna vs Flamengo BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Itabuna
Itabuna
FT
2 – 1
Flamengo BA
Flamengo BA
6/20/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 7Estádio José Trindade Lobo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Itabuna59%
×Draw26%
Flamengo BA15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna
1.52
Flamengo BA
0.62

Itabuna creates 145% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Itabuna
1.64
Flamengo BA
0.60

allows per match

Itabuna
0.64
Flamengo BA
1.40

finishing

Itabuna+0.00on par
Flamengo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna ↓

Flamengo BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Itabuna or draw
85%
Itabuna or Flamengo BA
74%
Draw or Flamengo BA
41%

Winning margin

Itabuna wins by 2+
31%
Flamengo BA wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Itabuna 1+ goals
78%
Itabuna 2+ goals
45%
Itabuna 3+ goals
20%
Flamengo BA 1+ goals
46%
Flamengo BA 2+ goals
13%
Flamengo BA 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Itabuna (draw refunded)
80%
Flamengo BA (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Flamengo BA away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna attack 1.64 + Flamengo BA defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.52

Flamengo BA attack 0.60 + Itabuna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Itabuna scores more
59%
level
26%
Flamengo BA scores more
15%

Itabuna at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itabuna vs Flamengo BA

Itabuna beat Flamengo BA 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio José Trindade Lobo in Santo Antônio de Jesus, Bahia.