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Itabuna vs Botafogo BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Itabuna
Itabuna
FT
1 – 0
Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
5/22/2022Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 1Estádio Lomanto Júnior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Itabuna51%
×Draw26%
Botafogo BA23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna
1.54
Botafogo BA
0.93

Itabuna creates 66% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

Itabuna
1.64
Botafogo BA
1.22

allows per match

Itabuna
0.64
Botafogo BA
1.44

finishing

Itabuna+0.00on par
Botafogo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna ↓

Botafogo BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Itabuna or draw
77%
Itabuna or Botafogo BA
74%
Draw or Botafogo BA
49%

Winning margin

Itabuna wins by 2+
27%
Botafogo BA wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Itabuna 1+ goals
79%
Itabuna 2+ goals
45%
Itabuna 3+ goals
20%
Botafogo BA 1+ goals
61%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
24%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Itabuna (draw refunded)
69%
Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.64 · 11 matches

Botafogo BA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna attack 1.64 + Botafogo BA defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.54

Botafogo BA attack 1.22 + Itabuna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Itabuna scores more
51%
level
26%
Botafogo BA scores more
23%

Itabuna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Itabuna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Itabuna 1–0 Botafogo BA

Itabuna beat Botafogo BA 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio Lomanto Júnior in Vitória da Conquista, Bahia.