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Itabuna EC U20 vs Jequie U20 — Baiano U20 2026

Itabuna EC U20
Itabuna EC U20
FT
2 – 2
Jequie U20
Jequie U20
3/20/2024Baiano U20Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Itabuna EC U2037%
×Draw27%
Jequie U2036%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabuna EC U20
1.29
Jequie U20
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Itabuna EC U20
1.17
Jequie U20
1.21

allows per match

Itabuna EC U20
1.33
Jequie U20
1.42

finishing

Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par
Jequie U20+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna EC U20 ↓

Jequie U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Itabuna EC U20 or draw
64%
Itabuna EC U20 or Jequie U20
73%
Draw or Jequie U20
63%

Winning margin

Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+
16%
Jequie U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals
72%
Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals
37%
Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals
14%
Jequie U20 1+ goals
72%
Jequie U20 2+ goals
36%
Jequie U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)
51%
Jequie U20 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna EC U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Jequie U20 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.17 + Jequie U20 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Jequie U20 attack 1.21 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Itabuna EC U20 scores more
37%
level
27%
Jequie U20 scores more
36%

Itabuna EC U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Itabuna EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano U20: Itabuna EC U20 2–2 Jequie U20

Itabuna EC U20 and Jequie U20 drew 2-2 in Baiano U20 on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.