Itabuna EC U20 1–1 Grapiuna U20: Result & Stats

Itabuna EC U20

FT

1 – 1

Grapiuna U20

4/27/2024

Baiano U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio José Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Itabuna EC U2031%

×Draw30%

Grapiuna U2038%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Itabuna EC U20Expected goals in this matchGrapiuna U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.09

Itabuna EC U20

0.96

Grapiuna U20

1.09

Grapiuna U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

1.17

creates per match

0.85

1.33

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Itabuna EC U20

1.17

Grapiuna U20

0.85

allows per match

Itabuna EC U20

1.33

Grapiuna U20

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itabuna EC U20+0.00on par

Grapiuna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabuna EC U20 ↓

Grapiuna U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Itabuna EC U20 or draw

62%

Itabuna EC U20 or Grapiuna U20

70%

Draw or Grapiuna U20

69%

Winning margin

Itabuna EC U20 wins by 2+

11%

Grapiuna U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Itabuna EC U20 1+ goals

62%

Itabuna EC U20 2+ goals

25%

Itabuna EC U20 3+ goals

7%

Grapiuna U20 1+ goals

66%

Grapiuna U20 2+ goals

30%

Grapiuna U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Itabuna EC U20 (draw refunded)

45%

Grapiuna U20 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabuna EC U20 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Grapiuna U20 away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabuna EC U20 attack 1.17 + Grapiuna U20 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Grapiuna U20 attack 0.85 + Itabuna EC U20 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Itabuna EC U20 scores more

31%

level

30%

Grapiuna U20 scores more

38%

Grapiuna U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Grapiuna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff