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Itaboraí vs Novorizontino — Serie D 2018

Itaboraí
Itaboraí
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Novorizontino
Novorizontino
5/5/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 1Estádio Municipal Alziro de Almeida (Itaboraí, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Itaboraí45%
×Draw26%
Novorizontino29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itaboraí
1.48
Novorizontino
1.13

Itaboraí creates 31% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

creates per match

Itaboraí
2.00
Novorizontino
1.25

allows per match

Itaboraí
1.00
Novorizontino
0.95

finishing

Itaboraí+0.00on par
Novorizontino+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itaboraí ↓

Novorizontino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Itaboraí or draw
71%
Itaboraí or Novorizontino
74%
Draw or Novorizontino
55%

Winning margin

Itaboraí wins by 2+
22%
Novorizontino wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Itaboraí 1+ goals
77%
Itaboraí 2+ goals
43%
Itaboraí 3+ goals
19%
Novorizontino 1+ goals
68%
Novorizontino 2+ goals
31%
Novorizontino 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Itaboraí (draw refunded)
61%
Novorizontino (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itaboraí at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Novorizontino away — creates 1.25, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itaboraí attack 2.00 + Novorizontino defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.48

Novorizontino attack 1.25 + Itaboraí defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Itaboraí scores more
45%
level
26%
Novorizontino scores more
29%

Itaboraí at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Itaboraí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Itaboraí 1–1 Novorizontino

Itaboraí and Novorizontino drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Alziro de Almeida (Itaboraí, Rio de Janeiro).