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Itaboraí vs Hercílio Luz — Serie D 2018

Itaboraí
Itaboraí
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hercílio Luz
Hercílio Luz
5/26/2019Serie DSerie D · Round 4Estádio Municipal Alziro de Almeida (Itaboraí, Rio de Janeiro)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Itaboraí50%
×Draw27%
Hercílio Luz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itaboraí
1.45
Hercílio Luz
0.90

Itaboraí creates 61% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 19 away

creates per match

Itaboraí
2.00
Hercílio Luz
0.79

allows per match

Itaboraí
1.00
Hercílio Luz
0.89

finishing

Itaboraí+0.00on par
Hercílio Luz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itaboraí ↓

Hercílio Luz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Itaboraí or draw
77%
Itaboraí or Hercílio Luz
73%
Draw or Hercílio Luz
50%

Winning margin

Itaboraí wins by 2+
25%
Hercílio Luz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Itaboraí 1+ goals
77%
Itaboraí 2+ goals
42%
Itaboraí 3+ goals
18%
Hercílio Luz 1+ goals
59%
Hercílio Luz 2+ goals
23%
Hercílio Luz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Itaboraí (draw refunded)
68%
Hercílio Luz (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itaboraí at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Hercílio Luz away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itaboraí attack 2.00 + Hercílio Luz defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Hercílio Luz attack 0.79 + Itaboraí defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Itaboraí scores more
50%
level
27%
Hercílio Luz scores more
23%

Itaboraí at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Itaboraí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Itaboraí 0–1 Hercílio Luz

Hercílio Luz beat Itaboraí 1-0 in Serie D on May 26, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Alziro de Almeida (Itaboraí, Rio de Janeiro).