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Itabirito vs Varginha EC — Mineiro - 2 2026

Itabirito
Itabirito
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Varginha EC
Varginha EC
Tata 86'
Wesley Pionteck 65'
L. Lima 54', 12' (pen)
6/7/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 9Campo Do União

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Itabirito58%
×Draw26%
Varginha EC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabirito
1.53
Varginha EC
0.66

Itabirito creates 132% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 26 away

creates per match

Itabirito
1.60
Varginha EC
0.92

allows per match

Itabirito
0.40
Varginha EC
1.46

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par
Varginha EC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 62Yes: 3862%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

Varginha EC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw
84%
Itabirito or Varginha EC
74%
Draw or Varginha EC
42%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+
31%
Varginha EC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals
78%
Itabirito 2+ goals
45%
Itabirito 3+ goals
20%
Varginha EC 1+ goals
48%
Varginha EC 2+ goals
14%
Varginha EC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)
78%
Varginha EC (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Varginha EC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 1.60 + Varginha EC defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.53

Varginha EC attack 0.92 + Itabirito defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Itabirito scores more
58%
level
26%
Varginha EC scores more
16%

Itabirito at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Itabirito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
L. LimaPenalty
54'
L. Lima
65'
Wesley Pionteck
86'
Tata

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itabirito vs Varginha EC

Itabirito beat Varginha EC 4-0 in Mineiro - 2 on June 7, 2023.

Goals: L. Lima (12' pen, 54'), Wesley Pionteck (65'), Tata (86').

The match was played at Campo Do União in Itabirito, Minas Gerais.