Itabirito 2–0 Uniao Trabalhadores: Result & Stats

Itabirito

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Uniao Trabalhadores

Albaceta Eduardo 78'

Guilherme Da Silva 66'

7/22/2023

Mineiro - 2 · Hexagonal Final - 6Campo Do União

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Itabirito47%

×Draw29%

Uniao Trabalhadores24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItabiritoExpected goals in this matchUniao Trabalhadores

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.81

Itabirito

1.26

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.81

Itabirito creates 56% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 23 away

1.60

creates per match

1.22

0.40

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Itabirito

1.60

Uniao Trabalhadores

1.22

allows per match

Itabirito

0.40

Uniao Trabalhadores

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par

Uniao Trabalhadores+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

Uniao Trabalhadores →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw

76%

Itabirito or Uniao Trabalhadores

71%

Draw or Uniao Trabalhadores

53%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+

21%

Uniao Trabalhadores wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals

72%

Itabirito 2+ goals

36%

Itabirito 3+ goals

13%

Uniao Trabalhadores 1+ goals

56%

Uniao Trabalhadores 2+ goals

19%

Uniao Trabalhadores 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)

66%

Uniao Trabalhadores (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Uniao Trabalhadores away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 1.60 + Uniao Trabalhadores defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.26

Uniao Trabalhadores attack 1.22 + Itabirito defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Itabirito scores more

47%

level

29%

Uniao Trabalhadores scores more

24%

Itabirito at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Itabirito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

66'

Guilherme Da Silva

78'

Albaceta Eduardo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff