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Itabirito vs Uniao Luziense — Mineiro - 2 2026

Itabirito
Itabirito
FT
3 – 0
Uniao Luziense
Uniao Luziense
5/13/2023Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 4Campo Do União

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Itabirito64%
×Draw24%
Uniao Luziense12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabirito
1.61
Uniao Luziense
0.54

Itabirito creates 198% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 16 away

creates per match

Itabirito
1.60
Uniao Luziense
0.69

allows per match

Itabirito
0.40
Uniao Luziense
1.63

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par
Uniao Luziense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 64Over: 3664%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 67Yes: 3367%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

Uniao Luziense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw
88%
Itabirito or Uniao Luziense
76%
Draw or Uniao Luziense
36%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+
35%
Uniao Luziense wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals
80%
Itabirito 2+ goals
48%
Itabirito 3+ goals
22%
Uniao Luziense 1+ goals
42%
Uniao Luziense 2+ goals
10%
Uniao Luziense 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)
84%
Uniao Luziense (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

Uniao Luziense away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 1.60 + Uniao Luziense defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Uniao Luziense attack 0.69 + Itabirito defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Itabirito scores more
64%
level
24%
Uniao Luziense scores more
12%

Itabirito at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Itabirito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itabirito vs Uniao Luziense

Itabirito beat Uniao Luziense 3-0 in Mineiro - 2 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Do União in Itabirito, Minas Gerais.