Itabirito 2–3 Tombense: Result & Stats

Itabirito

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Tombense

2/1/2026

Mineiro - 1 · Round 6Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Itabirito28%

×Draw26%

Tombense46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItabiritoExpected goals in this matchTombense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.49

Itabirito

1.10

Tombense

1.49

Tombense creates 35% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 42 away

1.00

creates per match

1.12

1.85

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Itabirito

1.00

Tombense

1.12

allows per match

Itabirito

1.85

Tombense

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par

Tombense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

Tombense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw

54%

Itabirito or Tombense

74%

Draw or Tombense

72%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+

11%

Tombense wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals

67%

Itabirito 2+ goals

30%

Itabirito 3+ goals

10%

Tombense 1+ goals

77%

Tombense 2+ goals

44%

Tombense 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)

38%

Tombense (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Tombense away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 1.00 + Tombense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.10

Tombense attack 1.12 + Itabirito defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Itabirito scores more

28%

level

26%

Tombense scores more

46%

Tombense at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tombense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff