Itabirito 2–2 North Esporte: Result & Stats

Itabirito

FT

2 – 2

North Esporte

4/29/2023

Mineiro - 2 · Round 1Campo Do União

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Itabirito53%

×Draw30%

North Esporte17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItabiritoExpected goals in this matchNorth Esporte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.58

Itabirito

1.25

North Esporte

0.58

Itabirito creates 116% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 21 away

1.60

creates per match

0.76

0.40

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Itabirito

1.60

North Esporte

0.76

allows per match

Itabirito

0.40

North Esporte

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par

North Esporte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

North Esporte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw

83%

Itabirito or North Esporte

70%

Draw or North Esporte

47%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+

25%

North Esporte wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals

71%

Itabirito 2+ goals

36%

Itabirito 3+ goals

13%

North Esporte 1+ goals

44%

North Esporte 2+ goals

12%

North Esporte 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)

75%

North Esporte (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

North Esporte away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 1.60 + North Esporte defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.25

North Esporte attack 0.76 + Itabirito defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Itabirito scores more

53%

level

30%

North Esporte scores more

17%

Itabirito at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Itabirito will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff