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Itabirito vs Democrata GV — Mineiro - 1 2020

Itabirito
Itabirito
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Democrata GV
Democrata GV
1/10/2026Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Round 1Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Itabirito32%
×Draw27%
Democrata GV41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabirito
1.16
Democrata GV
1.35

Democrata GV creates 16% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Itabirito
1.00
Democrata GV
0.85

allows per match

Itabirito
1.85
Democrata GV
1.31

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par
Democrata GV+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

Democrata GV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw
59%
Itabirito or Democrata GV
73%
Draw or Democrata GV
68%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+
13%
Democrata GV wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals
69%
Itabirito 2+ goals
32%
Itabirito 3+ goals
11%
Democrata GV 1+ goals
74%
Democrata GV 2+ goals
39%
Democrata GV 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)
44%
Democrata GV (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Democrata GV away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 1.00 + Democrata GV defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

Democrata GV attack 0.85 + Itabirito defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Itabirito scores more
32%
level
27%
Democrata GV scores more
41%

Democrata GV at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Democrata GV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 1: Itabirito 0–1 Democrata GV

Democrata GV beat Itabirito 1-0 in Mineiro - 1 on January 10, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes in Nova Lima.