Itabirito 2–2 Cianorte: Result & Stats | Serie D

Itabirito

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cianorte

Bruno Menezes 85'

Luan 22' (pen)

Wagner Manaus 9'

Caique 6'

4/26/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 2Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Itabirito30%

×Draw30%

Cianorte40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ItabiritoExpected goals in this matchCianorte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

1.14

Itabirito

0.93

Cianorte

1.14

Cianorte creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 20 away

0.86

creates per match

0.85

1.43

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Itabirito

0.86

Cianorte

0.85

allows per match

Itabirito

1.43

Cianorte

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par

Cianorte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

Cianorte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw

60%

Itabirito or Cianorte

70%

Draw or Cianorte

70%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+

10%

Cianorte wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals

61%

Itabirito 2+ goals

24%

Itabirito 3+ goals

7%

Cianorte 1+ goals

68%

Cianorte 2+ goals

32%

Cianorte 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)

42%

Cianorte (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Cianorte away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 0.86 + Cianorte defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Cianorte attack 0.85 + Itabirito defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Itabirito scores more

30%

level

30%

Cianorte scores more

40%

Cianorte at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cianorte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

Caique

9'

Wagner Manaus

22'

LuanPenalty

85'

Bruno Menezes

Itabirito

Cianorte

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Felipe Conceição

Itabirito substitutes

LucasRamonMenezesLimaMarcondeleGeorgeCézarGabrielFagundesDornelasFerreiraKinzel

Manager: Renato Peixe

Cianorte substitutes

SchulzIvoCoutinhoNimagaPradoTiepoPortelRamomTite

Serie D: Itabirito 2–2 Cianorte

Itabirito and Cianorte drew 2-2 in Serie D on April 26, 2025.

Goals: Caique (6'), Wagner Manaus (9'), Luan (22' pen), Bruno Menezes (85').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Castor de Cifuentes in Nova Lima, Minas Gerais.

Itabirito vs Cianorte — Serie D 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie D: Itabirito 2–2 Cianorte