Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Itabirito vs Atletico-MG — Mineiro - 1 2020

Itabirito
Itabirito
FT
2 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Atletico-MG
Atletico-MG
2/14/2026Mineiro - 1Mineiro - 1 · Round 8Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Itabirito18%
×Draw24%
Atletico-MG58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itabirito
0.83
Atletico-MG
1.72

Atletico-MG creates 107% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 45 away

creates per match

Itabirito
1.00
Atletico-MG
1.58

allows per match

Itabirito
1.85
Atletico-MG
0.67

finishing

Itabirito+0.00on par
Atletico-MG+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito ↓

Atletico-MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Itabirito or draw
42%
Itabirito or Atletico-MG
76%
Draw or Atletico-MG
82%

Winning margin

Itabirito wins by 2+
6%
Atletico-MG wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Itabirito 1+ goals
56%
Itabirito 2+ goals
20%
Itabirito 3+ goals
5%
Atletico-MG 1+ goals
82%
Atletico-MG 2+ goals
51%
Atletico-MG 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Itabirito (draw refunded)
23%
Atletico-MG (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.67 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito attack 1.00 + Atletico-MG defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.83

Atletico-MG attack 1.58 + Itabirito defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Itabirito scores more
18%
level
24%
Atletico-MG scores more
58%

Atletico-MG at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Atletico-MG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 1: Itabirito 2–7 Atletico-MG

Atletico-MG beat Itabirito 7-2 in Mineiro - 1 on February 14, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Castor Cifuentes in Nova Lima.