Itabirito U20 4–2 XV de Novembro U20

Itabirito U20

FT

4 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

XV de Novembro U20

Isaac 90+1'

Alexsander 77'

P. Borburema 66'

Samuel Thiago 55'

R. Lopes 84'

V. Alvarenga 83'

7/26/2025

Mineiro U20 · 1st Phase - 10Campo Do União

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Itabirito U2064%

×Draw18%

XV de Novembro U2018%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Itabirito U20Expected goals in this matchXV de Novembro U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.50

1.24

Itabirito U20

2.50

XV de Novembro U20

1.24

Itabirito U20 creates 102% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.91

creates per match

0.92

1.55

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Itabirito U20

1.91

XV de Novembro U20

0.92

allows per match

Itabirito U20

1.55

XV de Novembro U20

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Itabirito U20+0.00on par

XV de Novembro U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itabirito U20 ↓

XV de Novembro U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Itabirito U20 or draw

82%

Itabirito U20 or XV de Novembro U20

82%

Draw or XV de Novembro U20

36%

Winning margin

Itabirito U20 wins by 2+

43%

XV de Novembro U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Itabirito U20 1+ goals

92%

Itabirito U20 2+ goals

71%

Itabirito U20 3+ goals

45%

XV de Novembro U20 1+ goals

71%

XV de Novembro U20 2+ goals

35%

XV de Novembro U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Itabirito U20 (draw refunded)

79%

XV de Novembro U20 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itabirito U20 at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

XV de Novembro U20 away — creates 0.92, concedes 3.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itabirito U20 attack 1.91 + XV de Novembro U20 defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.50

XV de Novembro U20 attack 0.92 + Itabirito U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Itabirito U20 scores more

64%

level

18%

XV de Novembro U20 scores more

18%

Itabirito U20 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Itabirito U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

Samuel Thiago

66'

P. Borburema

77'

Alexsander

83'

V. Alvarenga

84'

R. Lopes

90+1'

Isaac

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff