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Itaberai U20 vs Royal U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Itaberai U20
Itaberai U20
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Royal U20
Royal U20
4/19/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Rio das Pedras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Itaberai U2023%
×Draw23%
Royal U2054%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itaberai U20
1.06
Royal U20
1.77

Royal U20 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Itaberai U20
1.00
Royal U20
0.94

allows per match

Itaberai U20
2.60
Royal U20
1.11

finishing

Itaberai U20+0.00on par
Royal U20+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itaberai U20 ↓

Royal U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Itaberai U20 or draw
46%
Itaberai U20 or Royal U20
77%
Draw or Royal U20
77%

Winning margin

Itaberai U20 wins by 2+
8%
Royal U20 wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Itaberai U20 1+ goals
65%
Itaberai U20 2+ goals
29%
Itaberai U20 3+ goals
9%
Royal U20 1+ goals
83%
Royal U20 2+ goals
53%
Royal U20 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Itaberai U20 (draw refunded)
30%
Royal U20 (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itaberai U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Royal U20 away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itaberai U20 attack 1.00 + Royal U20 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Royal U20 attack 0.94 + Itaberai U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Itaberai U20 scores more
23%
level
23%
Royal U20 scores more
54%

Royal U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Royal U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Itaberai U20 vs Royal U20

Itaberai U20 beat Royal U20 2-1 in Goiano U20 on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Rio das Pedras in Itaberaí, Goiás.