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Itaberai U20 vs Aparecida EC U20 — Goiano U20 2024

Itaberai U20
Itaberai U20
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aparecida EC U20
Aparecida EC U20
4/12/2024Goiano U20Goiano U20 · 1st Phase - 7Estádio Rio das Pedras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Itaberai U2030%
×Draw24%
Aparecida EC U2046%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Itaberai U20
1.35
Aparecida EC U20
1.73

Aparecida EC U20 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Itaberai U20
1.00
Aparecida EC U20
0.86

allows per match

Itaberai U20
2.60
Aparecida EC U20
1.71

finishing

Itaberai U20+0.00on par
Aparecida EC U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Itaberai U20 ↓

Aparecida EC U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Itaberai U20 or draw
54%
Itaberai U20 or Aparecida EC U20
76%
Draw or Aparecida EC U20
70%

Winning margin

Itaberai U20 wins by 2+
13%
Aparecida EC U20 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Itaberai U20 1+ goals
74%
Itaberai U20 2+ goals
39%
Itaberai U20 3+ goals
15%
Aparecida EC U20 1+ goals
82%
Aparecida EC U20 2+ goals
52%
Aparecida EC U20 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Itaberai U20 (draw refunded)
39%
Aparecida EC U20 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Itaberai U20 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Aparecida EC U20 away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Itaberai U20 attack 1.00 + Aparecida EC U20 defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.35

Aparecida EC U20 attack 0.86 + Itaberai U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Itaberai U20 scores more
30%
level
24%
Aparecida EC U20 scores more
46%

Aparecida EC U20 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Aparecida EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Goiano U20: Itaberai U20 0–0 Aparecida EC U20

Itaberai U20 and Aparecida EC U20 drew 0-0 in Goiano U20 on April 12, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Rio das Pedras in Itaberaí, Goiás.