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Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo — HNL 2018

Istra 1961
Istra 1961
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
NK Slaven Belupo
NK Slaven Belupo
5/4/2026HNLHNL · Round 33Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Istra 196143%
×Draw26%
NK Slaven Belupo31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istra 1961
1.42
NK Slaven Belupo
1.15

Istra 1961 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

Istra 1961
1.11
NK Slaven Belupo
0.97

allows per match

Istra 1961
1.33
NK Slaven Belupo
1.72

finishing

Istra 1961+0.00on par
NK Slaven Belupo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

NK Slaven Belupo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw
69%
Istra 1961 or NK Slaven Belupo
74%
Draw or NK Slaven Belupo
57%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+
21%
NK Slaven Belupo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals
76%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
41%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
17%
NK Slaven Belupo 1+ goals
68%
NK Slaven Belupo 2+ goals
32%
NK Slaven Belupo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
59%
NK Slaven Belupo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 144 matches

NK Slaven Belupo away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.72 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.11 + NK Slaven Belupo defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

NK Slaven Belupo attack 0.97 + Istra 1961 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Istra 1961 scores more
43%
level
26%
NK Slaven Belupo scores more
31%

Istra 1961 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istra 1961 vs NK Slaven Belupo

Istra 1961 beat NK Slaven Belupo 3-1 in HNL on May 4, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Aldo Drosina in Pula.