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Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

Istra 1961
Istra 1961
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
2/21/2026HNLHNL · Round 23Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

Istra 196138%
×Draw27%
HNK Gorica35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istra 1961
1.27
HNK Gorica
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

Istra 1961
1.11
HNK Gorica
1.08

allows per match

Istra 1961
1.33
HNK Gorica
1.43

finishing

Istra 1961+0.00on par
HNK Gorica+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw
65%
Istra 1961 or HNK Gorica
73%
Draw or HNK Gorica
62%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+
17%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals
72%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
36%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
14%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
70%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
34%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
52%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 144 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.43 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.11 + HNK Gorica defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.27

HNK Gorica attack 1.08 + Istra 1961 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Istra 1961 scores more
38%
level
27%
HNK Gorica scores more
35%

Istra 1961 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica

HNK Gorica beat Istra 1961 2-0 in HNL on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion Aldo Drosina in Pula.