Istra 1961 0–0 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

Istra 1961

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Gorica

1/31/2025

HNL · Round 20Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Istra 196143%

×Draw27%

HNK Gorica31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Istra 1961Expected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.13

Istra 1961

1.39

HNK Gorica

1.13

Istra 1961 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 28 away

1.15

creates per match

1.03

1.22

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Istra 1961

1.15

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

Istra 1961

1.22

HNK Gorica

1.63

+0.08on par

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Istra 1961+0.08on par

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw

69%

Istra 1961 or HNK Gorica

73%

Draw or HNK Gorica

57%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+

20%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals

75%

Istra 1961 2+ goals

40%

Istra 1961 3+ goals

16%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

68%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

31%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)

58%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 1.15 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + Istra 1961 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Istra 1961 scores more

43%

level

27%

HNK Gorica scores more

31%

Istra 1961 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Istra 1961 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

D. Marešić

Istra 1961 · D

8.0

Match Events

31'

F. Čuić← A. Elezi

60'

M. Lisica← A. Kadušić

60'

G. Gagua← H. Jaganjac

62'

A. Pajaziti← I. Fiolić

62'

V. Čaić← J. Gurlica

73'

L. Vrzić← A. Erceg

87'

I. Ćalušić← L. Róbertsson

87'

K. Fućak← V. Rozić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IstraHNK

Overview

59%Possession41%

14Total Shots7

1.61Expected Goals (xG)0.80

5Corners4

8Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots7

3On Target1

7Off Target2

4Blocked4

9Inside Box3

5Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

491Total Passes346

406Accurate Passes270

83%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls10

0Offsides1