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Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb — HNL 2018

Istra 1961
Istra 1961
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
4/5/2025HNLHNL · Round 28Stadion Aldo Drosina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Istra 196112%
×Draw21%
Dinamo Zagreb67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istra 1961
0.64
Dinamo Zagreb
1.90

Dinamo Zagreb creates 197% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Istra 1961
0.68
Dinamo Zagreb
2.14

allows per match

Istra 1961
1.66
Dinamo Zagreb
0.60

finishing

Istra 1961+0.32scores more
Dinamo Zagreb+0.36scores more

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istra 1961 ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–115%
0–214%
0–39%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Istra 1961 or draw
33%
Istra 1961 or Dinamo Zagreb
79%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb
88%

Winning margin

Istra 1961 wins by 2+
3%
Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Istra 1961 1+ goals
47%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
14%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
3%
Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
85%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
56%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
15%
Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istra 1961 at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.66 · 5 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.60 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istra 1961 attack 0.68 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.64

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.14 + Istra 1961 defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Istra 1961 scores more
12%
level
21%
Dinamo Zagreb scores more
67%

Dinamo Zagreb at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: Istra 1961 3–0 Dinamo Zagreb

Istra 1961 beat Dinamo Zagreb 3-0 in HNL on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Aldo Drosina in Pula.