Istiqlol 0–2 Sepahan FC: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Istiqlol

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sepahan FC

A. Kamara 80'

M. Karimi 55' (pen)

12/3/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 6Republican Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Istiqlol42%

×Draw28%

Sepahan FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IstiqlolExpected goals in this matchSepahan FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.04

Istiqlol

1.29

Sepahan FC

1.04

Istiqlol creates 24% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

1.38

creates per match

1.00

1.08

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Istiqlol

1.38

Sepahan FC

1.00

allows per match

Istiqlol

1.08

Sepahan FC

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par

Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Sepahan FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw

70%

Istiqlol or Sepahan FC

72%

Draw or Sepahan FC

58%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+

19%

Sepahan FC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals

72%

Istiqlol 2+ goals

37%

Istiqlol 3+ goals

14%

Sepahan FC 1+ goals

65%

Sepahan FC 2+ goals

28%

Sepahan FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)

58%

Sepahan FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 1.38 + Sepahan FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Sepahan FC attack 1.00 + Istiqlol defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Istiqlol scores more

42%

level

28%

Sepahan FC scores more

30%

Istiqlol at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

M. Mohebi

Sepahan FC · M

8.7

Match Events

55'

M. KarimiPenalty

65'

S. Mabatshoev← O. Larin

74'

Manuchekhr Dzhalilov

77'

A. Kamara← M. Limouchi

77'

R. Shekari← B. Dabo

77'

K. Rezaei← J. Aghayipour

80'

R. Soirov← M. Dzhalilov

80'

A. Kamara↳ M. Mohebi

81'

Sodikdzhon Kurbonov

84'

M. Bordbar← S. Nzonzi

84'

V. Hanonov← A. Yousefi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IstiqlolSepahan

Overview

33%Possession67%

5Total Shots28

2Corners4

8Fouls15

Shots

5Total Shots28

1On Target12

0Off Target8

4Blocked8

4Inside Box15

1Outside Box13

Passing

33%Possession67%

298Total Passes633

226Accurate Passes573

76%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls15

2Yellow Cards0

3Offsides1