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Istiqlol vs Ravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2019

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Ravshan
Ravshan
5/28/2023Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 12Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Istiqlol69%
×Draw18%
Ravshan12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
2.23
Ravshan
0.82

Istiqlol creates 172% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 72 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
3.20
Ravshan
1.11

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.53
Ravshan
1.26

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Ravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
88%
Istiqlol or Ravshan
82%
Draw or Ravshan
31%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
45%
Ravshan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
89%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
65%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
38%
Ravshan 1+ goals
56%
Ravshan 2+ goals
20%
Ravshan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
85%
Ravshan (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.20, concedes 0.53 · 97 matches

Ravshan away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.20 + Ravshan defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 2.23

Ravshan attack 1.11 + Istiqlol defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Istiqlol scores more
69%
level
18%
Ravshan scores more
12%

Istiqlol at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Istiqlol vs Ravshan

Ravshan beat Istiqlol 2-1 in Vysshaya Liga on May 28, 2023.

The match was played at Respublikanskiy Stadion im. M.V. Frunze in Dushanbe.