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Istiqlol vs Khatlon — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
Preview
12:30
Khatlon
Khatlon
10/10/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 18
Big match
74%
Istiqlol
model favours
74%16%10%

Istiqlol are unbeaten in 12 straight

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Istiqlol74%
×Draw16%
Khatlon10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
2.41
Khatlon
0.76

Istiqlol creates 217% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 48 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
3.29
Khatlon
1.02

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.49
Khatlon
1.52

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Khatlon+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Khatlon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
90%
Istiqlol or Khatlon
84%
Draw or Khatlon
26%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
51%
Khatlon wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
91%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
69%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
43%
Khatlon 1+ goals
53%
Khatlon 2+ goals
18%
Khatlon 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
88%
Khatlon (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.49 · 45 matches

Khatlon away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.52 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.29 + Khatlon defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.41

Khatlon attack 1.02 + Istiqlol defence 0.49 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Istiqlol scores more
74%
level
16%
Khatlon scores more
10%

Istiqlol at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Istiqlol score first in only 17% of matches
  • Khatlon score first in only 18% of matches
  • Istiqlol have won 6 of the last 8 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Istiqlol
WWDWW
Khatlon
DLDDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Istiqlol host Khatlon

October 10, 2026: Istiqlol take on Khatlon in Vysshaya Liga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.