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Istiqlol vs Eskhata — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Istiqlol
Istiqlol
FT
6 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Eskhata
Eskhata
11/10/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 22Republican Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Istiqlol68%
×Draw18%
Eskhata14%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Istiqlol
2.46
Eskhata
1.04

Istiqlol creates 137% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 22 away

creates per match

Istiqlol
3.23
Eskhata
1.59

allows per match

Istiqlol
0.48
Eskhata
1.68

finishing

Istiqlol+0.00on par
Eskhata+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Istiqlol ↓

Eskhata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Istiqlol or draw
86%
Istiqlol or Eskhata
82%
Draw or Eskhata
32%

Winning margin

Istiqlol wins by 2+
46%
Eskhata wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Istiqlol 1+ goals
91%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
70%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
44%
Eskhata 1+ goals
65%
Eskhata 2+ goals
28%
Eskhata 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Istiqlol (draw refunded)
83%
Eskhata (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Istiqlol at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.48 · 44 matches

Eskhata away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.68 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Istiqlol attack 3.23 + Eskhata defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.46

Eskhata attack 1.59 + Istiqlol defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Istiqlol scores more
68%
level
18%
Eskhata scores more
14%

Istiqlol at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Istiqlol 6–2 Eskhata

Istiqlol beat Eskhata 6-2 in Vysshaya Liga on November 10, 2025.

The match was played at Republican Central Stadium in Dushanbe.